April 4-5th Severe Weather Outlook
I know its been another hot minute. It’s not often we can talk about sever potential out near day 7 with any degree of confidence, or even skill beyond climatology, but we have such a chance today. Of course, at this range, we have to rely on global models...
Front Range Whiplash and Northern Plains Snow
After a bit of a hiatus, I’m back! Changing jobs and moving takes a toll after all. There is an interesting week of weather ahead, its had some pretty impressive signals in the global ensembles. Why all the activity all of a sudden? Let’s dive in. SSWE – Sudden...
Here Come the Raw Deterministic Snow Forecasts!
It is the time of year where a quick glance at deterministic medium-range models can show you whatever you are looking for: snow, severe, and anything in between. There is never a shortage of forecast hour 240 model output of snow circulating on social media (like the GFS plot...
Tropics: Gulf of Mexico Potential Quick-Look
While I find cold core dynamics much more interesting, the time has come to talk about warm cores. Undoubtedly you will see doomsday deterministic forecasts showing “a Cat 5 hurricane hitting <insert city here>” on social media, if you have not already. Tropical systems are unique in the actions...
Ensemble Forecasting: From Spaghetti to Scenarios
On the left is an example of what has been a typical way to view ensemble data. In this case, a GEFS 500mb height spaghetti plot from PSL. Usually, a meteorologist would look at these to determine uncertainty, and when it looked like “spaghetti” they would just say the...
Western US Heat: How’d it Go?
In the last post, we looked at the heat potential for the week, the peak, and some uncertainty in the cooldown. So how did we do, using tools like the clusters, ECMWF EFI, and NBM? Pretty well! Shown below are just a few of the locations that tied or...
Western US: When Will the Heat End?
Much of the Western US finds itself in the middle of a late-season heatwave for the holiday weekend. As meteorological autumn begins, just how much longer will it last? Let’s turn to medium-range ensembles to help answer that question. The Lead Up Ensembles gave us a good long heads...
Welcome! Coming Soon…
Welcome to this new forecasting blog. Here, I will focus on forecasting, but with a twist. Instead of 1980s-style forecasting looking at a couple deterministic models with a yes/no outcome, I will dive into the new forecast process in the era of big-data: informed by ensembles, post-processed, calibrated blends,...