Front Range Whiplash and Northern Plains Snow
After a bit of a hiatus, I’m back! Changing jobs and moving takes a toll after all. There is an interesting week of weather ahead, its had some pretty impressive signals in the global ensembles. Why all the activity all of a sudden? Let’s dive in. SSWE – Sudden...
Ensemble Forecasting: From Spaghetti to Scenarios
On the left is an example of what has been a typical way to view ensemble data. In this case, a GEFS 500mb height spaghetti plot from PSL. Usually, a meteorologist would look at these to determine uncertainty, and when it looked like “spaghetti” they would just say the...
Western US Heat: How’d it Go?
In the last post, we looked at the heat potential for the week, the peak, and some uncertainty in the cooldown. So how did we do, using tools like the clusters, ECMWF EFI, and NBM? Pretty well! Shown below are just a few of the locations that tied or...
Western US: When Will the Heat End?
Much of the Western US finds itself in the middle of a late-season heatwave for the holiday weekend. As meteorological autumn begins, just how much longer will it last? Let’s turn to medium-range ensembles to help answer that question. The Lead Up Ensembles gave us a good long heads...