Tag: nbm

Front Range Whiplash and Northern Plains Snow

After a bit of a hiatus, I’m back! Changing jobs and moving takes a toll after all. There is an interesting week of weather ahead, its had some pretty impressive signals in the global ensembles. Why all the activity all of a sudden? Let’s dive in. SSWE – Sudden...

Here Come the Raw Deterministic Snow Forecasts!

It is the time of year where a quick glance at deterministic medium-range models can show you whatever you are looking for: snow, severe, and anything in between. There is never a shortage of forecast hour 240 model output of snow circulating on social media (like the GFS plot...

Western US Heat: How’d it Go?

In the last post, we looked at the heat potential for the week, the peak, and some uncertainty in the cooldown. So how did we do, using tools like the clusters, ECMWF EFI, and NBM? Pretty well! Shown below are just a few of the locations that tied or...

Western US: When Will the Heat End?

Much of the Western US finds itself in the middle of a late-season heatwave for the holiday weekend. As meteorological autumn begins, just how much longer will it last? Let’s turn to medium-range ensembles to help answer that question. The Lead Up Ensembles gave us a good long heads...